Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Toronto Blue Jays ML (-115, Caesars) · confidence 50.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.4 pts · 0u
Spencer Arrighetti (4.82 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs Randy Dobnak (2.65 ERA, 1.39 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.7; sim total 9 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -120 / +104 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -115 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 47.6% vs de-vigged market 52.7%: 5.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Randy Dobnak under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.327 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.008, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 99°F at first pitch: run environment x1.115 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (60% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -120 / +104 | -121 / +105 |
| Total | 9.5 | 9.5 (o-104 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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