Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-140, Caesars) · confidence 56.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.6 pts · 0u
Clay Holmes (2.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) vs Tyler Phillips (3.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–3.9; sim total 8.5 against a 8 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline -146 / +126 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -140 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.1% vs de-vigged market 57.3%: 1.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.393 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.075, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (+100, Bovada) · model 55.9% · edge +5.9 pts · divergence +7.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -146 / +126 | -145 / +125 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (+100, Bovada) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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