Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 run line · confidence 43.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.1 pts · 0u
Walbert Ureña (2.85 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs Paul Skenes (3.97 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
Projected 3.6–4.5; sim total 8.1 against a 7 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +164 / -195 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -185 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to PIT -1.5 (covers 43.6% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 58.1% vs de-vigged market 63.6%: 5.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 43.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.274 trails league 0.318 by 0.045 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 73°F at first pitch: run environment x1.014. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 7 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 50.9% · edge +2.6 pts · divergence +3.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +164 / -195 | +150 / -180 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-118 / u-102) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 7 (+107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.07u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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