Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Kansas City Royals ML (-108, BetUS) · confidence 51.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.3 pts · 0u
Derek Law (1.93 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) vs Noah Cameron (4.08 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.6; sim total 8.9 against a 9 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -102 / -112 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -108 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.1% vs de-vigged market 51.1%: 1.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Derek Law under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.268 trails league 0.317 by 0.049 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 91°F at first pitch: run environment x1.084. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (+106, FanDuel) · model 56.4% · edge +7.9 pts · divergence +8.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -102 / -112 | -104 / -112 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-118 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
➖ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (+106, FanDuel) — PUSH (+0.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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