The slate for Monday, September 7, 2026: 11 games, no qualifying plays, 5 on watch
11 games on the slate, 10 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 5 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
What we learned: Monday, August 31, 2026 – Sunday, September 6, 2026
The engine ran 7 slates: 92 games simulated, 0 plays published (0u risked), 62 tracked on the watch list at 0 units, 5 scratched by rule. Every no-play day was a decision, not an outage: nothing cleared the gates at an allocatable price, and the leans that failed are on each day's board with reasons.
No staked picks were graded this week — the gates held everything back. The paper records below are where a quiet week still teaches.
The watch list on paper this week (flat 1u, 0 staked, never mixed into the ledger):
R8-hold8-2 · +1.83u paperedge-band4-2 · +2.10u papermarket-proving32-14 · +17.22u paper
These records accumulate toward the public promotion criteria — 100 graded picks, non-negative units, calibration inside 4 points — and nothing gets staked before then.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Sunday, September 6, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 9-2 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:05 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Grant Holmes (3.62) vs Jesús Luzardo (3.02) | 4.2–4.4 | 8.7 / 8 |
| 1:10 PM ET | New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Jonah Tong (3.60) vs Eury Pérez (3.72) | 4–4.3 | 8.2 / 8 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Grayson Rodriguez (6.03) vs Brayan Bello (5.07) | 3.9–5.1 | 9 / 8.5 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Joey Cantillo (3.81) vs Trevor Rogers (4.30) | 4.1–4.3 | 8.4 / 7 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Derek Law (1.93) vs Noah Cameron (4.08) | 4.4–4.6 | 8.9 / 9 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Matthew Boyd (4.05) vs Robert Gasser (4.57) | 4.7–4.8 | 9.5 / 8.5 |
| 3:10 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Joe Ryan (3.65) vs Troy Melton (2.20) | 4.1–4.4 | 8.6 / 8 |
| 5:10 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Jake Irvin (5.57) vs Nick Pivetta (4.50) | 4.4–4.6 | 9 / 8 |
| 8:10 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Michael McGreevy (3.97) vs Logan Webb (4.21) | 4.2–4.1 | 8.3 / 7.5 |
| 10:05 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Dylan Cease (2.25) vs Jacob Lopez (4.71) | 4.7–3.9 | 8.7 / 8.5 |
| 9:10 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for LAD inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
No qualifying plays — and the best of what remained
Today's ✳ Best of Board is Kansas City Royals ML (-108, BetUS) (Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals) at 0 units: the model's top remaining choice, published with every gate it failed. We show it so you can see the reasoning; we don't stake it, and it never enters the ledger.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics. Dylan Cease (2.25 ERA) against Jacob Lopez (4.71) is a 2.5-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles. The sim lands on 8.4 runs against a 7 line — 1.4 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The cold bats: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingNew York Mets @ Miami Marlins — Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 58.1% · edge +7.6 ptsmarket-provingLos Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox — Over 8.5 (+105, Caesars) · model 50.8% · edge +2.1 ptsmarket-provingArizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals — Under 9 (+106, FanDuel) · model 56.4% · edge +7.9 ptsmarket-provingWashington Nationals @ San Diego Padres — Over 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 54.6% · edge +2.9 ptsR8-holdWashington Nationals @ San Diego Padres — San Diego Padres ML (-185, MyBookie.ag) · model 38.5% · edge -7.4 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.