Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-121, LowVig.ag) · confidence 51.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.9 pts · 0u
Matthew Boyd (4.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs Robert Gasser (4.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–4.8; sim total 9.5 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +106 / -124 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -121 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.4% vs de-vigged market 53.3%: 2.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.373 vs league 0.317 (gap -0.056, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +106 / -124 | +105 / -121 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-109 / u-111) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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