Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 run line · confidence 38.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.7 pts · 0u
Grant Holmes (3.62 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs Jesús Luzardo (3.02 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.4; sim total 8.7 against a 8 line; park factor 1.01.
Market at board time: moneyline +154 / -180 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -175 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to PHI -1.5 (covers 38.7% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.9% vs de-vigged market 62.0%: 10.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 38.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.329 vs league 0.317 (gap -0.012, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 78°F at first pitch: run environment x1.030. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +154 / -180 | +154 / -182 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date