Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Detroit Tigers ML (-113, BetUS) · confidence 52.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.6 pts · 0u
Joe Ryan (3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs Troy Melton (2.20 ERA, 1.03 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.4; sim total 8.6 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +103 / -120 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -113 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.4% vs de-vigged market 52.5%: 0.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.331 vs league 0.317 (gap -0.014, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 78°F at first pitch: run environment x1.033. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +103 / -120 | +102 / -120 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-104 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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