Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-167, BetUS) · confidence 60.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.1 pts · 0u
Grayson Rodriguez (6.03 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) vs Brayan Bello (5.07 ERA, 1.46 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–5.1; sim total 9 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +148 / -175 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -167 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 59.7% vs de-vigged market 61.2%: 1.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 60.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.263 trails league 0.317 by 0.054 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.030. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (+105, Caesars) · model 50.8% · edge +2.1 pts · divergence +2.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +148 / -175 | +149 / -175 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-102 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (+105, Caesars) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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