Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 run line · confidence 42.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.2 pts · 0u
Dylan Cease (2.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) vs Jacob Lopez (4.71 ERA, 1.46 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–3.9; sim total 8.7 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -200 / +170 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -190 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to TOR -1.5 (covers 42.8% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.4% vs de-vigged market 64.3%: 7.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 42.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.333 vs league 0.317 (gap -0.015, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 84°F at first pitch: run environment x1.055. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -200 / +170 | -180 / +151 |
| Total | 8.5 | 9.5 (o-119 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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