St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Francisco Giants ML (-125, Caesars) · confidence 51.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.8 pts · 0u
Michael McGreevy (3.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs Logan Webb (4.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.1; sim total 8.3 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.94.
Market at board time: moneyline +111 / -129 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -125 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.3% vs de-vigged market 54.3%: 5.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.334 vs league 0.317 (gap -0.016, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.016. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +111 / -129 | -105 / -107 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8 (o-102 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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