Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 run line · confidence 44.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.6 pts · 0u
David Peterson (5.39 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) vs Jacob Misiorowski (1.97 ERA, 0.79 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–5.1; sim total 9.1 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +182 / -215 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -206 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to MIL -1.5 (covers 44.8% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.6% vs de-vigged market 65.8%: 8.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 44.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.367 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.052, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 56.5% · edge +8.2 pts · divergence +9.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +182 / -215 | +116 / -130 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-118 / u-104) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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