The slate for Tuesday, September 8, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 8 on watch
15 games on the slate, 13 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 2 scratched by rule. 8 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Monday, September 7, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 1-3-1 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:35 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Tanner Bibee (4.06) vs Brandon Young (3.42) | 4.1–4.4 | 8.5 / 8.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Dean Kremer (5.81) vs Drew Anderson (3.73) | 4.3–4.8 | 9.1 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Hayden Wesneski (3.18) vs Andrew Painter (5.55) | 4.8–4.4 | 9.2 / 8.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Sean Manaea (4.70) vs Sandy Alcantara (3.54) | 3.9–4.3 | 8.2 / 8 |
| 6:45 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Reid Detmers (3.44) vs Patrick Sandoval (4.41) | 3.9–4.6 | 8.5 / 7.5 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Gabriel Hughes (6.19) vs Cam Schlittler (2.04) | 3.9–5 | 8.9 / 8 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Freddy Peralta (4.96) vs AJ Smith-Shawver (7.13) | 4.4–4.7 | 9.2 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Bubba Chandler (4.30) vs Sean Burke (3.20) | 4.4–4.8 | 9.3 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | David Peterson (5.39) vs Jacob Misiorowski (1.97) | 4.1–5.1 | 9.1 / 7.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Riley Cornelio (5.96) vs Casey Mize (3.64) | 4.3–4.5 | 8.8 / 8 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | José Soriano (3.52) vs Jack Perkins (6.50) | 4.9–4.3 | 9.2 / 9.5 |
| 9:45 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Quinn Mathews (4.38) vs Landen Roupp (4.17) | 4.1–4.3 | 8.4 / 7.5 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Nick Lodolo (5.08) vs Tarik Skubal (2.86) | 3.8–5.2 | 9 / 8 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for AZ inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 9:40 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for TEX, SEA inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Atlanta Braves ML (-108, LowVig.ag) — Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves, 7:15 PM ET. Edge +0.1 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.418. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees. Cam Schlittler (2.04 ERA) against Gabriel Hughes (6.19) is a 4.2-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers. The sim lands on 9.1 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.6 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The cold bats: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingCleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles — Under 8.5 (-108, BetRivers) · model 56.2% · edge +4.3 ptsmarket-provingNew York Mets @ Miami Marlins — Under 8 (-104, LowVig.ag) · model 58.2% · edge +7.2 ptsR8-holdColorado Rockies @ New York Yankees — New York Yankees ML (-319, BetOnline.ag) · model 46.5% · edge -9.2 ptsmarket-provingTampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves — Over 8.5 (+105, Bovada) · model 55.3% · edge +6.5 ptsmarket-provingPittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox — Over 8.5 (+100, BetRivers) · model 54.3% · edge +4.3 ptsmarket-provingChicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers — Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 56.5% · edge +8.2 ptsmarket-provingWashington Nationals @ San Diego Padres — Over 8 (-102, BetMGM) · model 54.1% · edge +3.6 ptsR8-holdCincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-310, BetOnline.ag) · model 48.6% · edge -7.8 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.