Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-136, Caesars) · confidence 56.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.1 pts · 0u
Reid Detmers (3.44 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) vs Patrick Sandoval (4.41 ERA, 1.73 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.6; sim total 8.5 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +123 / -144 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -136 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.2% vs de-vigged market 56.8%: 0.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Patrick Sandoval under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.267 trails league 0.316 by 0.048 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 72°F at first pitch: run environment x1.008. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +123 / -144 | +123 / -144 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-115 / u-104) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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