Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves ML (-108, LowVig.ag) · confidence 52.0% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.1 pts · 0u
Freddy Peralta (4.96 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) vs AJ Smith-Shawver (7.13 ERA, 1.75 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.7; sim total 9.2 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -102 / -114 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (9 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -108 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.6% vs de-vigged market 51.3%: 1.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: AJ Smith-Shawver under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.308 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.008, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 87°F at first pitch: run environment x1.068. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.419) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (+105, Bovada) · model 55.3% · edge +6.5 pts · divergence +7.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -102 / -114 | +104 / -123 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-108 / u-112) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (+105, Bovada) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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