Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres ML (-178, BetUS) · confidence 57.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.3 pts · 0u
Riley Cornelio (5.96 ERA, 1.81 WHIP) vs Casey Mize (3.64 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.5; sim total 8.8 against a 8 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline +155 / -184 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -178 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.1% vs de-vigged market 62.3%: 9.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Riley Cornelio under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.314 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.002, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 91°F at first pitch: run environment x1.084 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (66% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8 (-102, BetMGM) · model 54.1% · edge +3.6 pts · divergence +5.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +155 / -184 | +165 / -195 |
| Total | 8 | 8.5 (o-106 / u-114) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8 (-102, BetMGM) — WIN (+0.98u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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