St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Francisco Giants ML (-105, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 50.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.5 pts · 0u
Quinn Mathews (4.38 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) vs Landen Roupp (4.17 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.3; sim total 8.4 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.94.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -108 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -105 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.2% vs de-vigged market 50.3%: 0.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Quinn Mathews under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.328 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.013, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 73°F at first pitch: run environment x1.013. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -108 | -125 / +106 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8 (o-118 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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