Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Baltimore Orioles ML (-115, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 52.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.9 pts · 0u
Tanner Bibee (4.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) vs Brandon Young (3.42 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.4; sim total 8.5 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +104 / -120 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -115 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.6% vs de-vigged market 52.7%: 0.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.304 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.012, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (-108, BetRivers) · model 56.2% · edge +4.3 pts · divergence +4.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +104 / -120 | +104 / -120 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-104 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (-108, BetRivers) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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