Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Kansas City Royals ML (+108, Caesars) · confidence 51.6% of 10,000 sims · edge +3.6 pts · 0u
Zac Gallen (6.34 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) vs Daniel Lynch IV (3.51 ERA, 1.10 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–5; sim total 9.2 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -119 / +101 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +108 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.5% vs de-vigged market 47.8%: 7.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.279 trails league 0.317 by 0.037 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 82°F at first pitch: run environment x1.048. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.790) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -119 / +101 | -119 / +102 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-120 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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