The slate for Wednesday, September 9, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 10 on watch
15 games on the slate, 14 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 10 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Tuesday, September 8, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 4-4 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:10 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Zebby Matthews (4.69) vs Keider Montero (3.52) | 4.2–4.7 | 8.9 / 8.5 |
| 3:05 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Braydon Fisher (3.20) vs Brady Basso (4.32) | 4.5–4.4 | 8.9 / 9.5 |
| 3:45 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Andre Pallante (3.51) vs Blade Tidwell (4.43) | 4.3–4 | 8.3 / 8.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Jackson Kent (5.55) vs Walker Buehler (4.56) | 4.6–4.5 | 9 / 8.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Cody Bradford (4.45) vs Kade Anderson (5.40) | 4.1–4 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 6:35 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Foster Griffin (3.26) vs Shane Baz (3.91) | 4–4.3 | 8.4 / 8.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Hunter Brown (3.31) vs Cristopher Sánchez (2.58) | 4.1–4.4 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Robert Stock (5.81) vs Janson Junk (4.00) | 4–4.3 | 8.3 / 8.5 |
| 6:45 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Ryan Johnson (5.17) vs Jake Bennett (3.34) | 3.6–5.2 | 8.7 / 9 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Tomoyuki Sugano (5.19) vs Will Warren (4.16) | 4.5–5.2 | 9.6 / 9 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Zac Gallen (6.34) vs Daniel Lynch IV (3.51) | 4.3–5 | 9.2 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Lake Bachar (3.59) vs Davis Martin (4.13) | 4.6–4.9 | 9.5 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Kevin Gausman (4.38) vs Logan Henderson (2.48) | 4.4–4.7 | 9.1 / 7.5 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Rhett Lowder (5.43) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.67) | 3.9–5.2 | 9.1 / 8.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for ATL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Kansas City Royals ML (+108, Caesars) — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals, 7:40 PM ET. Edge +3.6 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.790. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals. Daniel Lynch IV (3.51 ERA) against Zac Gallen (6.34) is a 2.8-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers. The sim lands on 9.1 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.6 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The cold bats: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingWashington Nationals @ San Diego Padres — Over 8.5 (+100, Fanatics) · model 54.4% · edge +4.4 ptsR8-holdWashington Nationals @ San Diego Padres — San Diego Padres ML (-171, DraftKings) · model 36.6% · edge -7.2 ptsmarket-provingTexas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners — Under 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 51.3% · edge +3.0 ptsmarket-provingCleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles — Under 8.5 (+100, FanDuel) · model 56.9% · edge +6.9 ptsedge-bandCleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles — Baltimore Orioles ML (+104, LowVig.ag) · model 50.5% · edge +1.5 ptsmarket-provingHouston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies — Under 8 (+100, Bovada) · model 52.6% · edge +2.6 ptsmarket-provingNew York Mets @ Miami Marlins — Under 8.5 (+106, LowVig.ag) · model 57.9% · edge +9.3 ptsmarket-provingColorado Rockies @ New York Yankees — Under 9 (-104, LowVig.ag) · model 53.4% · edge +2.5 ptsR8-holdColorado Rockies @ New York Yankees — New York Yankees ML (-235, BetUS) · model 43.7% · edge -8.2 ptsmarket-provingChicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers — Over 7.5 (-106, MyBookie.ag) · model 56.0% · edge +4.5 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.