Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners ML (-141, LowVig.ag) · confidence 53.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.1 pts · 0u
Cody Bradford (4.45 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) vs Kade Anderson (5.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4; sim total 8.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.92.
Market at board time: moneyline +127 / -149 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -141 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.2% vs de-vigged market 57.6%: 8.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Cody Bradford, Kade Anderson under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.342 vs league 0.317 (gap -0.026, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 51.3% · edge +3.0 pts · divergence +4.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +127 / -149 | +127 / -150 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-118 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.07u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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