Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Toronto Blue Jays ML (-162, BetRivers) · confidence 56.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.6 pts · 0u
Braydon Fisher (3.20 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs Brady Basso (4.32 ERA, 1.41 WHIP).
Projected 4.5–4.4; sim total 8.9 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -178 / +150 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -162 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.9% vs de-vigged market 61.5%: 10.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Brady Basso under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.338 vs league 0.317 (gap -0.021, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 91°F at first pitch: run environment x1.083 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (57% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -178 / +150 | -172 / +145 |
| Total | 9.5 | 9.5 (o+100 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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