Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres -1.5 run line · confidence 36.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.2 pts · 0u
Jackson Kent (5.55 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) vs Walker Buehler (4.56 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.5; sim total 9 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline +156 / -182 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -171 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to SD -1.5 (covers 36.6% of sims).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 49.5%, de-vigged market says 62.3%: a 12.8-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 flag: Jackson Kent under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.319 vs league 0.317 (gap -0.003, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 92°F at first pitch: run environment x1.089. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (+100, Fanatics) · model 54.4% · edge +4.4 pts · divergence +6.2 pts
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): San Diego Padres ML (-171, DraftKings) · model 36.6% · edge -7.2 pts · divergence -12.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +156 / -182 | +154 / -182 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8 (o-116 / u-102) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (+100, Fanatics) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): San Diego Padres ML (-171, DraftKings) — WIN (+0.58u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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