Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 46.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.6 pts · 0u
Rhett Lowder (5.43 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.67 ERA, 0.90 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–5.2; sim total 9.1 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +231 / -285 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -271 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 46.7% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 59.9% vs de-vigged market 71.0%: 11.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 46.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -7.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.363 vs league 0.317 (gap -0.047, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +231 / -285 | +234 / -285 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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