Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 run line · confidence 50.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.9 pts · 0u
Ryan Johnson (5.17 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) vs Jake Bennett (3.34 ERA, 1.02 WHIP).
Projected 3.6–5.2; sim total 8.7 against a 9 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +180 / -215 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -205 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to BOS -1.5 (covers 50.0% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 63.0% vs de-vigged market 65.6%: 2.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.273 trails league 0.317 by 0.044 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.028. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +180 / -215 | +178 / -212 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-120 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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