Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Baltimore Orioles ML (+104, LowVig.ag) · confidence 50.5% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.5 pts · 0u
Foster Griffin (3.26 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs Shane Baz (3.91 ERA, 1.33 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.3; sim total 8.4 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -115 / +100 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +104 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.7% vs de-vigged market 48.3%: 4.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.306 vs league 0.317 (gap +0.011, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (+100, FanDuel) · model 56.9% · edge +6.9 pts · divergence +9.0 pts
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Baltimore Orioles ML (+104, LowVig.ag) · model 50.5% · edge +1.5 pts · divergence +4.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -115 / +100 | -115 / -102 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-120 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (+100, FanDuel) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
✅ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Baltimore Orioles ML (+104, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.04u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date