Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees -1.5 run line · confidence 45.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -8.2 pts · 0u
Ryan Feltner (5.91 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) vs Max Fried (2.73 ERA, 0.99 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–5.2; sim total 9.3 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +240 / -300 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -280 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to NYY -1.5 (covers 45.9% of sims).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 59.0%, de-vigged market says 71.8%: a 12.8-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.309 vs league 0.318 (gap +0.009, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 84°F at first pitch: run environment x1.056. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (+100, Caesars) · model 54.4% · edge +4.4 pts · divergence +5.1 pts
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): New York Yankees ML (-280, LowVig.ag) · model 45.9% · edge -8.2 pts · divergence -12.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +240 / -300 | +238 / -290 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (+100, Caesars) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): New York Yankees ML (-280, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.36u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date