The slate for Thursday, September 10, 2026: 5 games, no qualifying plays, 5 on watch
5 games on the slate, 5 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 5 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Wednesday, September 9, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 7-3 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:15 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Nick Martinez (3.04) vs Martín Pérez (3.25) | 4.2–4.4 | 8.6 / 8.5 |
| 1:05 PM ET | Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Cristian Javier (5.98) vs Zack Wheeler (3.23) | 4.3–4.8 | 9.1 / 8.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Jacob deGrom (3.96) vs Logan Gilbert (3.71) | 4–3.8 | 7.8 / 6.5 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Ryan Feltner (5.91) vs Max Fried (2.73) | 4.1–5.2 | 9.3 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Jared Jones (4.46) vs Hagen Smith (0.56) | 4.4–4.8 | 9.2 / 7.5 |
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Chicago White Sox ML (-104, BetUS) — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox, 7:40 PM ET. Edge +0.4 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.440. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox. Hagen Smith (0.56 ERA) against Jared Jones (4.46) is a 3.9-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox. The sim lands on 9.2 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.7 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The argument: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees. Raw model and de-vigged market disagree by 12.8 points here. Our standing rule: past 12 points the market is assumed to know something we don't, and the game is a hold, not a bigger bet. Under it, a disagreement is just that — logged on the card, sized by the gates.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingHouston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies — Over 8.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 55.5% · edge +4.2 ptsmarket-provingTexas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners — Over 6.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 56.7% · edge +5.5 ptsmarket-provingColorado Rockies @ New York Yankees — Over 8.5 (+100, Caesars) · model 54.4% · edge +4.4 ptsR8-holdColorado Rockies @ New York Yankees — New York Yankees ML (-280, LowVig.ag) · model 45.9% · edge -8.2 ptsmarket-provingPittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox — Over 7.5 (-115, Bovada) · model 58.0% · edge +4.5 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.