Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners ML (-121, LowVig.ag) · confidence 51.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.5 pts · 0u
Jacob deGrom (3.96 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) vs Logan Gilbert (3.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP).
Projected 4–3.8; sim total 7.8 against a 6.5 line; park factor 0.92.
Market at board time: moneyline +108 / -127 (consensus at board time) · total 6.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -121 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.8% vs de-vigged market 53.8%: 5.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.335 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.018, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 6.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 56.7% · edge +5.5 pts · divergence +6.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +108 / -127 | +108 / -126 |
| Total | 6.5 | 6.5 (o-112 / u-108) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 6.5 (-105, Bovada) — WIN (+0.95u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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