Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (-104, BetUS) · confidence 51.3% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.4 pts · 0u
Jared Jones (4.46 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs Hagen Smith (0.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.8; sim total 9.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -109 / -110 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (9 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -104 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.5% vs de-vigged market 50.1%: 2.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Hagen Smith under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.331 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.014, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 72°F at first pitch: run environment x1.008. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.440) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-115, Bovada) · model 58.0% · edge +4.5 pts · divergence +5.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -109 / -110 | -104 / -114 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-115, Bovada) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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