Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 run line · confidence 41.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.1 pts · 0u
Cristian Javier (5.98 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) vs Zack Wheeler (3.23 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.8; sim total 9.1 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.01.
Market at board time: moneyline +155 / -185 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -180 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to PHI -1.5 (covers 41.6% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.0% vs de-vigged market 62.3%: 8.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 41.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Cristian Javier under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.303 vs league 0.318 (gap +0.015, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 88°F at first pitch: run environment x1.071 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (73% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 55.5% · edge +4.2 pts · divergence +5.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +155 / -185 | +156 / -187 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-114 / u-107) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (-105, Bovada) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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