Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (-109, LowVig.ag) · confidence 51.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.5 pts · 0u
Anthony Kay (4.47 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) vs Matthew Liberatore (5.57 ERA, 1.47 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.5; sim total 9.3 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -114 / -105 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -109 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.4% vs de-vigged market 51.0%: 1.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.283 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.034, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.028. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -114 / -105 | -105 / -114 |
| Total | 8 | 8.5 (o-104 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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