The slate for Friday, September 11, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 5 on watch
15 games on the slate, 13 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 2 scratched by rule. 5 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Thursday, September 10, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 3-2 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:20 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Wilber Dotel (4.41) vs Shota Imanaga (3.91) | 4.7–5.2 | 9.9 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Mason Adams (3.95) vs Framber Valdez (4.17) | 4.3–4.6 | 8.9 / 8 |
| 6:45 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Yusei Kikuchi (4.96) vs Cade Cavalli (3.12) | 4.1–5 | 9.1 / 7.5 |
| 7:05 PM ET | New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Nolan McLean (3.06) vs Carlos Rodón (3.09) | 4–4.5 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 7:07 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Chris Bassitt (4.96) vs Max Scherzer (6.03) | 4.7–4.3 | 9 / 8 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Seth Lugo (5.04) vs Sonny Gray (2.69) | 4–5.1 | 9.1 / 8.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Miguel Ullola (3.86) vs Drew Rasmussen (2.88) | 4.1–4.6 | 8.7 / 7.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Aaron Nola (4.76) vs Chris Sale (2.10) | 3.7–4.8 | 8.5 / 7 |
| 7:45 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Andrew Abbott (4.43) vs Dustin May (4.69) | 4.1–5.1 | 9.2 / 8 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Parker Messick (2.53) vs Taj Bradley (3.95) | 4.2–4.1 | 8.3 / 7.5 |
| 8:15 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Anthony Kay (4.47) vs Matthew Liberatore (5.57) | 4.8–4.5 | 9.3 / 8 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | George Kirby (4.18) vs Jeffrey Springs (6.02) | 5–4.6 | 9.6 / 10 |
| 10:15 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Robbie Ray (3.39) vs Anthony Molina (2.79) | 4.1–3.9 | 8 / 8 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for LAD inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 9:40 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for TEX, AZ inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
No qualifying plays — and the best of what remained
Today's ✳ Best of Board is Chicago White Sox ML (-109, LowVig.ag) (Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals) at 0 units: the model's top remaining choice, published with every gate it failed. We show it so you can see the reasoning; we don't stake it, and it never enters the ledger.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves. Chris Sale (2.10 ERA) against Aaron Nola (4.76) is a 2.7-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs. The sim lands on 9.9 runs against a 8 line — 1.9 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The argument: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs. Raw model and de-vigged market disagree by 10.8 points here. Our standing rule: past 12 points the market is assumed to know something we don't, and the game is a hold, not a bigger bet. Under it, a disagreement is just that — logged on the card, sized by the gates.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingLos Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals — Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 59.4% · edge +6.3 ptsmarket-provingNew York Mets @ New York Yankees — Under 8 (+100, Bovada) · model 53.5% · edge +3.5 ptsmarket-provingPhiladelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves — Over 7 (-110, Caesars) · model 54.8% · edge +2.4 ptsmarket-provingSeattle Mariners @ Athletics — Under 10 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 59.4% · edge +8.9 ptsmarket-provingSan Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants — Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 61.8% · edge +10.1 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.