Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-166, LowVig.ag) · confidence 57.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.1 pts · 0u
Miguel Ullola (3.86 ERA, 0.86 WHIP) vs Drew Rasmussen (2.88 ERA, 0.91 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.6; sim total 8.7 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +145 / -170 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -166 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.0% vs de-vigged market 60.7%: 6.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Miguel Ullola under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.300 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.016, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +145 / -170 | +123 / -144 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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