Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs -1.5 run line · confidence 41.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.9 pts · 0u
Wilber Dotel (4.41 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) vs Shota Imanaga (3.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–5.2; sim total 9.9 against a 8 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline +165 / -200 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -188 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to CHC -1.5 (covers 41.8% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.0% vs de-vigged market 63.9%: 10.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 41.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Wilber Dotel under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.326 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.017. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +165 / -200 | +162 / -194 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-118 / u-112) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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