Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 run line · confidence 45.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.0 pts · 0u
Aaron Nola (4.76 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) vs Chris Sale (2.10 ERA, 1.01 WHIP).
Projected 3.7–4.8; sim total 8.5 against a 7 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +155 / -185 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -180 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to ATL -1.5 (covers 45.1% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 58.2% vs de-vigged market 62.3%: 4.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 45.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.300 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.016, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 81°F at first pitch: run environment x1.044. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7 (-110, Caesars) · model 54.8% · edge +2.4 pts · divergence +3.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +155 / -185 | -130 / +113 |
| Total | 7 | 7.5 (o-102 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7 (-110, Caesars) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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