Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Washington Nationals ML (-145, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 57.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.5 pts · 0u
Yusei Kikuchi (4.96 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) vs Cade Cavalli (3.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–5; sim total 9.1 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +130 / -155 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -145 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.1% vs de-vigged market 58.3%: 1.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Yusei Kikuchi under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.291 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.025, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 80°F at first pitch: run environment x1.042. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 59.4% · edge +6.3 pts · divergence +8.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +130 / -155 | +130 / -154 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date