Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 run line · confidence 46.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.1 pts · 0u
Seth Lugo (5.04 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) vs Sonny Gray (2.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
Projected 4–5.1; sim total 9.1 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +168 / -200 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -192 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to BOS -1.5 (covers 46.2% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 59.2% vs de-vigged market 64.1%: 5.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 46.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.320 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.004, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 72°F at first pitch: run environment x1.007. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +168 / -200 | +158 / -190 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-107 / u-112) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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