Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Toronto Blue Jays ML (-125, BetRivers) · confidence 52.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.3 pts · 0u
Kyle Bradish (3.91 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) vs Spencer Miles (2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.2; sim total 8.3 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +109 / -127 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -125 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.5% vs de-vigged market 53.9%: 3.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.292 vs league 0.319 (gap +0.026, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (-109, LowVig.ag) · model 57.5% · edge +5.3 pts · divergence +7.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +109 / -127 | +110 / -127 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-102 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (-109, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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