The slate for Saturday, September 12, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 2 on watch
15 games on the slate, 13 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 2 scratched by rule. 2 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Friday, September 11, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 1-4 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:10 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Tanner Gordon (5.40) vs Andrew Sears (4.38) | 4.4–4.7 | 9.1 / 8.5 |
| 1:35 PM ET | New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Zac Thornton (3.53) vs Gerrit Cole (3.41) | 4–4.7 | 8.6 / 8 |
| 2:20 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Paul Skenes (3.83) vs Clay Holmes (2.83) | 4.4–5 | 9.3 / 9.5 |
| 3:07 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Kyle Bradish (3.91) vs Spencer Miles (2.77) | 4.1–4.2 | 8.3 / 8.5 |
| 4:05 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Walbert Ureña (2.74) vs Andrew Alvarez (3.60) | 4.2–4.7 | 8.9 / 8 |
| 4:05 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Michael King (3.00) vs Cesar Perdomo (0.90) | 4–3.8 | 7.8 / 7.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Randy Dobnak (2.54) vs Ranger Suarez (3.44) | 4.1–4.8 | 8.9 / 8.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Daniel Espino (2.70) vs Connor Prielipp (5.25) | 4.4–4.4 | 8.8 / 8.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Tyler Glasnow (3.12) vs Tyler Phillips (3.51) | 4.4–4 | 8.5 / 7.5 |
| 6:10 PM ET | Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Peter Lambert (3.67) vs Ian Seymour (4.33) | 4.4–4.5 | 8.9 / 7.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Sean Newcomb (2.71) vs Kyle Leahy (3.41) | 4.4–4.2 | 8.5 / 8.5 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Kumar Rocker (4.61) vs Brandon Pfaadt (3.53) | 4.3–4.9 | 9.1 / 8 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Bryan Woo (4.03) vs Gage Jump (5.12) | 4.5–4.6 | 9.1 / 9.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for MIL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 7:15 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for PHI inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-120, LowVig.ag) — Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 8:10 PM ET. Edge +0.1 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.594. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins. Daniel Espino (2.70 ERA) against Connor Prielipp (5.25) is a 2.5-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays. The sim lands on 8.9 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.4 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The argument: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics. Raw model and de-vigged market disagree by 11.4 points here. Our standing rule: past 12 points the market is assumed to know something we don't, and the game is a hold, not a bigger bet. Under it, a disagreement is just that — logged on the card, sized by the gates.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingBaltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays — Under 8.5 (-109, LowVig.ag) · model 57.5% · edge +5.3 ptsmarket-provingSeattle Mariners @ Athletics — Under 9.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 57.6% · edge +5.9 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.