Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 40.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.8 pts · 0u
Tyler Glasnow (3.12 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) vs Tyler Phillips (3.51 ERA, 1.33 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4; sim total 8.5 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline -186 / +157 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -182 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 40.1% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.0% vs de-vigged market 62.6%: 9.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 40.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Tyler Glasnow under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.339 vs league 0.319 (gap -0.020, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -186 / +157 | -190 / +158 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date