Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (-104, FanDuel) · confidence 50.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.1 pts · 0u
Sean Newcomb (2.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) vs Kyle Leahy (3.41 ERA, 1.33 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.2; sim total 8.5 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -106 / -110 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -104 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.1% vs de-vigged market 49.6%: 2.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.286 vs league 0.319 (gap +0.033, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 86°F at first pitch: run environment x1.066. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -106 / -110 | -110 / -108 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date