Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-140, LowVig.ag) · confidence 53.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.6 pts · 0u
Peter Lambert (3.67 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs Ian Seymour (4.33 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.5; sim total 8.9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +122 / -144 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -140 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.7% vs de-vigged market 56.7%: 6.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.304 vs league 0.319 (gap +0.015, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +122 / -144 | +122 / -144 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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