Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners ML (-166, LowVig.ag) · confidence 55.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.0 pts · 0u
Bryan Woo (4.03 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) vs Gage Jump (5.12 ERA, 1.49 WHIP).
Projected 4.5–4.6; sim total 9.1 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -174 / +148 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -166 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.7% vs de-vigged market 61.2%: 11.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -7.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.304 vs league 0.319 (gap +0.015, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.028. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 57.6% · edge +5.9 pts · divergence +7.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -174 / +148 | -145 / +122 |
| Total | 9.5 | 9.5 (o-112 / u-108) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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