Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians ML (-103, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 50.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.5 pts · 0u
Daniel Espino (2.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs Connor Prielipp (5.25 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.4; sim total 8.8 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -108 / -109 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -103 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.6% vs de-vigged market 49.9%: 0.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Daniel Espino under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.316 vs league 0.319 (gap +0.002, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.016. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -108 / -109 | -108 / -108 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-102 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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