San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres -1.5 run line · confidence 38.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.7 pts · 0u
Michael King (3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) vs Cesar Perdomo (0.90 ERA, 0.80 WHIP).
Projected 4–3.8; sim total 7.8 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.94.
Market at board time: moneyline -180 / +153 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -176 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to SD -1.5 (covers 38.0% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.2% vs de-vigged market 61.9%: 9.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 38.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Cesar Perdomo under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.321 vs league 0.319 (gap -0.003, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 67°F at first pitch: run environment x0.986. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -180 / +153 | -180 / +153 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-118 / u-101) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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