Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-120, LowVig.ag) · confidence 54.6% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.1 pts · 0u
Kumar Rocker (4.61 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) vs Brandon Pfaadt (3.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.9; sim total 9.1 against a 8 line; park factor 1.05.
Market at board time: moneyline +109 / -130 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (9 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -120 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.1% vs de-vigged market 54.2%: 1.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.336 vs league 0.319 (gap -0.018, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.594) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +109 / -130 | +113 / -130 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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