Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 run line · confidence 43.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.8 pts · 0u
Randy Dobnak (2.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) vs Ranger Suarez (3.44 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.8; sim total 8.9 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +180 / -215 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -212 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to BOS -1.5 (covers 43.7% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.6% vs de-vigged market 65.6%: 9.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 43.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.320 vs league 0.319 (gap -0.001, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 72°F at first pitch: run environment x1.007. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +180 / -215 | +183 / -215 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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