Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 run line · confidence 41.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.4 pts · 0u
Chase Burns (2.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs Robert Gasser (4.43 ERA, 1.28 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.7; sim total 8.9 against a 8 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +159 / -186 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -184 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to MIL -1.5 (covers 41.6% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.9% vs de-vigged market 62.7%: 8.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 41.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.331 vs league 0.324 (gap -0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +159 / -186 | +166 / -198 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-113 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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