The slate for Sunday, September 13, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 5 on watch
15 games on the slate, 14 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 5 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Saturday, September 12, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 0-2 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:10 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Gabriel Hughes (5.81) vs Jackson Jobe (4.45) | 4.5–4.7 | 9.2 / 9 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Grayson Rodriguez (6.28) vs Jake Irvin (5.52) | 4.6–5.3 | 9.8 / 9 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Andrew Painter (5.71) vs Grant Holmes (3.46) | 4.2–5 | 9.1 / 9 |
| 1:35 PM ET | New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Christian Scott (3.81) vs Cam Schlittler (2.01) | 3.7–4.5 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 1:37 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Trevor Rogers (4.15) vs Dylan Cease (2.40) | 3.9–4.2 | 8.1 / 7 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Hayden Wesneski (3.35) vs Freddy Peralta (4.82) | 4.6–4.4 | 9 / 7.5 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Emmet Sheehan (5.08) vs Eury Pérez (3.94) | 4.4–4.4 | 8.8 / 8.5 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Tanner Bibee (4.22) vs Joe Ryan (3.68) | 4.2–4.5 | 8.7 / 8 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Chase Burns (2.73) vs Robert Gasser (4.43) | 4.2–4.7 | 8.9 / 8 |
| 2:20 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Bubba Chandler (4.25) vs Matthew Boyd (4.03) | 4.7–5.1 | 9.8 / 7 |
| 3:05 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Noah Cameron (3.93) vs Payton Tolle (3.15) | 4.1–4.9 | 8.9 / 7.5 |
| 4:05 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Bryce Miller (4.22) vs Jacob Lopez (4.78) | 4.7–4.7 | 9.4 / 9 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Cal Quantrill (2.89) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (2.55) | 4.1–4.7 | 8.8 / 8 |
| 7:20 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Nick Pivetta (3.43) vs Logan Webb (4.10) | 4–3.9 | 7.8 / 7.5 |
| 2:15 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for CWS inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Washington Nationals ML (-121, BetRivers) — Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals, 1:35 PM ET. Edge +0.2 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.576. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The total: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs. The sim lands on 9.8 runs against a 7 line — 2.8 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The mound mismatch: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves. Grant Holmes (3.46 ERA) against Andrew Painter (5.71) is a 2.2-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The argument: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers. Raw model and de-vigged market disagree by 10.3 points here. Our standing rule: past 12 points the market is assumed to know something we don't, and the game is a hold, not a bigger bet. Under it, a disagreement is just that — logged on the card, sized by the gates.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingColorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers — Under 9 (-109, LowVig.ag) · model 57.4% · edge +5.3 ptsmarket-provingPhiladelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves — Under 9 (+105, Caesars) · model 56.4% · edge +7.6 ptsmarket-provingKansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox — Over 7.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 53.5% · edge +4.2 ptsmarket-provingSeattle Mariners @ Athletics — Under 9 (+100, BetMGM) · model 56.5% · edge +6.5 ptsmarket-provingTexas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks — Under 8 (+100, Bovada) · model 53.4% · edge +3.4 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.